Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Wednesday Plays

1Q NEW JERSEY +2-105 (1.7) [SportBet]/[5Dimes]
Toronto Raptors +½ -110 for 1st Quarter (1.7) [BetJM]
Denver Nuggets/Toronto Raptors 1st Quarter Under 52½ -105 [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Sunday Monday and Tuesday Results

Sunday
1-0-0 (+1.64 units)

Monday
0-2-0 (-3.40 units)

Tuesday
2-1-0 (+2.03 units)
You have got to be kidding me Memphis. 11-31 4th quarter? Seriously?

Tuesday Plays

Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter +2½ -110 (1.7) [5Dimes]
Memphis Grizzlies +3 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]

Added Play
Los Angeles (C) 3.5 for Game -101 (2) [Matchbook]

Monday, December 29, 2008

Monday Plays

Denver Nuggets/Atlanta Hawks under 51½ -110 for 1st Quarter [BetJM]
Phoenix Suns -3 -110 for 1st Quarter (2.4) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Sunday Plays

I will not be around to make plays on the early games, so here are the plays depending on the posted spread:

NYK +1.5 -110 1Q (1.8)
NYK +1.0 -110 1Q (1.5)

I should be around for the start of the CLE game, but if I'm not there will be a play if the line moves.
Plays of the CLE game:
CLE -3.0 -110 1Q (0 units)
CLE -2.5 -110 1Q (1.2)
CLE -2.0 -110 1 (1.5)

I don't anticipate a play of CLE.

That should be it.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
2-1-0 (+2.71 units)

Week Results (New System)
4-6-0 (-0.38 units; ROI: -2.28%)

Week Results (Old System)
0-3-0 (-4.50 units; ROI: -100.00%)

YTD (Old System)
38-47-2 (-5.27 units; ROI: -3.78%)

Saturday Plays

I may not be able to make plays when the lines come out, but I anticipate a play on CHA.

I predict a 1Q line on CHA of -.5 or -1.0.

If it is at
-.5 -110 (2.0 units)
-1 -110 (1.7 units)

Adjust accordingly if alternate lines come out. I will do my best to have computer access at some point when a line comes out and before a game, but I'm not too optimistic.

Official Plays
Charlotte Bobcats -½ -115 for 1st Quarter (2.4) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]
Detroit Pistons +1½ -105 for 1st Quarter (1.7) [BetJM]/[5Dimes]
Detroit Pistons/Milwaukee Bucks under 47 -105 for 1st Quarter [BetJM]

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Thursday Plays

Hornets1Q (NewOrleans) +1  (-105) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]/[5Dimes]

I'm going to wait and see if [5Dimes] posts any 6 minute lines for the later games.

Added Plays
Portland (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter -1 -105 (2.1) [5Dimes]
Boston (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter +½ -115 (2.1) [5Dimes]
Phoenix (1st 6 min) 1st Quarter -½ -120 (2.5) [5Dimes]

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Tuesday Results

Old System
0-3-0 (-4.50 units)

New System
0-2-0 (-2.60 units)
The UTA plays was my bad. Got the Okur news too late.

Player Props
0-2-0 (-2.00 units)

Now that's what I call getting thoroughly rocked. Worst day since football.

Monday Results

0-1-0 (-1.30 units)

Thank you Sergio Rodriguez for your back to back turnovers leading to layups.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Old System
New Orleans Hornets -3 -110 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
Memphis Grizzlies +12 -110 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
Denver Nuggets +8 -110 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]

Player Props
J JOHNSON POINTS +1-115 vs. K. DURANT [SportBet]
Z ILGAUSKAS POINTS+REBOUNDS +6½ +120 vs Y. MING [SportBet]

New System
Minnesota Timberwolves/San Antonio Spurs 1st Quarter Under 47 -110 [5Dimes]
1Q UTAH +½-115 (1.6) [SportBet] or [5Dimes]

Monday Plays

New System is up and running!

Portland Trailblazers 1st Quarter +1 -110 (1.3) [BetJM] or [5Dimes]

Please DO NOT DO NOT DO NOT overbet your bankroll. These plays will have much higher variance, so remember to bet accordingly.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Record Update

Old System
Week Results
3-3-1 (+1.21 units; ROI: 14.07%)

YTD Results
38-44-2 (-0.77 units; ROI: -0.57%)

To make a long story short, the new system has been postponed because of a few stats pages that haven't been updated because of errors in play-by-play data. Updates are slowly coming in, but are currently not up to date. I will give the data until January 1st, 2009 and if it is not updated by then, I will return everyone's money. Sorry about that.
I will continue to post old system plays, but will be very selective about the ones I choose to post.
I believe that it will be updated prior to then. Maybe a nice Christmas present for us all.

UPDATE: The site has just been updated to a reasonable date. I will begin posting picks tomorrow from the new system if there are plays.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Wednesday Plays

Still old system plays.

Washington + 10.5 -110 (1.5) [SIA]
Los Angeles Clippers +3 -102 (1.1) [5Dimes]
Cleveland -10.0 +101 (2.1) [Matchbook]
Over 228.5 (GS/IND) +101 [Matchbook]

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Old system play
New York 13.5 -101 (1.8) [Bodog]

I think the new system will be up and running in the near future. You'll know when.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Plays for this week

Figures that the week I plan on posting these picks that a key site would be slow on the updating.
I pull stats from multiple websites and one important one has not updated in a week or so.
Because of the lack of updates, I will not make plays until this site has updated, or I'll have to compile my own stats.
If you have paid this week, I will move the week that you have paid for back 1 week. If the stats have not been updated in the next week or so, I will refund everyone's money. Sorry about that.

So, here are some plays from the old system
Washington Wizards -1 -105 for Game (1.1) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Boston -9.0 -104 (1.2) [Matchbook]

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Saturday Plays

Cleveland -4.0 +100 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Indiana 4.5 -104 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Charlotte + 2.0 -110 (1.4) [SIA]
Washington Wizards +5½ -105 (1.1) [5Dimes]

Friday, December 12, 2008

Sticky: Taking Picks Private

Hi Everyone,
After much thought and consideration, I will be taking my picks private. I have been hard at work (reason for lack of plays) on a new system which is about 50x better than the current NBA system (the one that led us to a 81 unit 07-08 season). I debated for a long time on whether or not to even release them, but I have decided to do so for a limited number of people.

The money will go towards the server costs as well as my time for creating this particular system. After a while I plan on switching it back to the charitable organization donations like last year.

Here's the deal.
$25 for 1 week (Sunday-Saturday)
$75 for 4 weeks (Sunday-Saturday)

Some things to note before subscribing:
Plays will have to be made very close to gametime (probably between 9am PST-gametime)
I will not make plays everyday
The variance with these plays will be much higher, but should be better overall in the long run.
Unlike last year, there will not be reimbursement for a -ROI week
With these plays, you must have certain books to find the lines, [5Dimes] at a bare minimum.
If there is little interest, I will stop making plays and return the prorated amount to subscribers.
I do not plan on prorating the week, so purchase prior to Sunday.


Also, to thank those who donated last year, I will be giving you the first week free. Check your email for the password.

Please feel free to email me at: mail@puresabermetrics.com with any questions.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Wednesday Results and Post Notification

0-1-0 (-1.10 units)

If you have subscribed to post notification, I had some issues with the plugin/website/everything, so I had to clear any personalized settings. So if you customized it in any way, you will want to change those settings.

Update: Post Notification customization is currently broken. I'm working on fixing it. You will still get all of the posts, but you will not be able to subscribe/unsubscribe. I should have it fixed by tonight...hopefully.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
4-1-0 (+6.27 units)

Week Results
7-3-0 (+9.83 units; ROI: 51.20%)

YTD Results
34-36-1 (+2.31 units; ROI: 1.94%)

Saturday Plays

Minnesota Timberwolves -1½ -105 (1.3) [5Dimes]
Denver Nuggets -5 -103 (1.8) [5Dimes]
Utah Jazz +7½ -102 (2.5) [5Dimes]
Washington 8.5 +100 (2.2) [Matchbook]

Added Play
New Jersey Nets +2½ -103 (1.2) [5Dimes]

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Friday Plays

Golden State +9.5 -105 (2) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

Thursday Plays

DENVER -3½-110 (1.3) [SportBet]

Sorry for the lack of plays this week. I have been busy and want to make sure I stay up with all the injuries.
Also, I've been working on something new, which may (will) have a much higher edge for NBA, but will definitely be keeping it in house.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday
2-0-0 (+4.67 units)

Monday
1-0-0 (+2.19 units)
Anyone else want to die during that Golden State meltdown?

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Sunday Plays

Portland 3.5 +105 (2.6) [Matchbook]

NFL Teasers
The only place I could find with all of these odds was [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian].

But I have so little funds there because of the past week in NBA and year in NFL I put some of it at [Bodog].

Added Play
New Jersey 9.0 -103 (2) [Matchbook]

3 Team 6 Point +180
NYJ -1.5
MIA -1
BAL -1
PIT +7.5

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.70 units)

Week Results
4-8-0 (-10.06 units; ROI: -46.79%)

YTD Results
27-33-1 (-7.52 units; ROI: -7.53%)

Friday, November 28, 2008

Saturday Plays

Utah Jazz -8 -110 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]

More to come in the morning.

Friday Results

0-2-0 (-4.50 units)

How to lose money:
1. Invest in the USD
2. Follow my picks

Friday Plays

Milwaukee Bucks +9 -105 for Game (2.5) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Atlanta Hawks/Toronto Raptors over 201 -105 for Game (2) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Wednesday Plays

Philadelphia 76ers -2½ -105 for Game (1.2) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Indiana Pacers +10½ -110 for Game (2.2) [BetJM]
San Antonio -7.5 +100 (1.4) [Matchbook]
New York 12.0 +110 (2.8) [Matchbook]

Added Plays
Cleveland Cavaliers team total over 107½ -115 for Game [5Dimes]
Denver -4.0 +102 (2.5) [Matchbook]

Tuesday Plays

Los Angeles Lakers -13½ -102 for Game (1.3) [5Dimes]

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday Results
0-1-0 (-1.10 units)

Monday Results
0-1-0 (-1.80 units)

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Monday Play

Miami + 3.5 -110 (1.8) [SIA]

Sunday Plays

Trying to make up for the horrible NFL season thus far...

3 Team 6 Point Teasers +180 [Bodog]
TB -1.5
PHI +8
CHI -1.5
MIN +9
IND +9
GB +9

NBA Plays
Chicago 8.5 -103 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Record Update

Saturday Results
3-6-0 (+2.90 units)

Week Results
11-18-1 (-4.30 units; ROI: -9.05%)

YTD Results
23-25-1 (+2.54 units; ROI: 3.24%)

NBA Props
Week Results
1-2-0

YTD Results
6-7-0

Saturday Plays

Today is going to be pretty insane...

NBA
Orlando -2.5 -103 (1.7) [Matchbook]
Indiana 5.5 -102 (1.5) [Matchbook]
New York -2.5 +103 (3) [Matchbook]
Under 204.0 (WAS/NY) +101 [Matchbook]
New Jersey -3.5 -101 (2.8) [Matchbook]
Under 190.0 (LAC/NJ) +104 [Matchbook]
Utah 3.0 +101 (4.5) [Matchbook]
Under 187.5 (UTA/MEM) +101 [Matchbook]
Portland 5.5 -102 (1.3) [Matchbook]

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Thursday Results and Friday Plays

Thursday Results
NBA Props
0-1-0

Friday Plays
LA Lakers -8 -105 (1.2) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
IND Pacers +2 -105 (1.4) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
ORL/IND UNDER 205 -110 [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
DEN/LAL UNDER 204.5 -110 [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

Thursday Plays

Steve Nash -Total Points and Assists OVER 22 -115 [Bodog]

Tuesday and Wednesday Results

Tuesday
1-2-0 (-1.55 units)

Wednesday
1-3-0 (-2.97 units)
I cannot believe we lost the MIL play...

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Wednesday Plays

Chicago 6.5 -102 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Oklahoma City 1.0 +106 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Milwaukee 10.5 +101 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Sacramento 13.5 +102 (1.5) [Matchbook]

Yeah so I totally changed my mind.

No Plays Today

As of now.  I'm going to spend some time tinkering with the calculations.  Not sure why I'm getting so many overs.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Charlotte Bobcats +5½ -105 for Game (2.5) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Miami 2.5 -102 (2.5) [Matchbook]
Under 204.0 (NY/BOS) +101 (1.5) [Matchbook]

Added Plays
J JOHNSON POINTS -1½-110 vs D. GRANGER [SportBet]
C BOSH POINTS+REBOUNDS +1½-120 vs D. HOWARD [SportBet]

Monday, November 17, 2008

Monday Results

I think I calculated this one out correctly.

2-2-0 (+0.63 units)

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Monday Plays

San Antonio 2.5 -102 (2.2) [Matchbook]
Over 177.0 (SA/LAC) +102 (1.5) [Matchbook]

Added Plays
Phoenix 2.5 -103 [Matchbook]
Over 194.0 (PHX/UTA) -103 [Matchbook]

Sunday Results

3-3-0 (-2.17 units)

1-5-0 (-6.27 units)

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Sunday Plays

New York Knicks +1½ -110 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
Over 189.0 (MIA/TOR) +103 [Matchbook]
Orlando -6.5 +100 (1.8) [Matchbook]
Over 183.0 (SA/SAC) +111 [Matchbook]
Over 198.5 (DET/PHX) -101 [Matchbook]
Miami 5.0 -103 (1.8) [Matchbook]

As I was making these plays a bunch of the totals moved...a lot...against me. Oh well.

Record Update

NBA
Saturday Results
5-2-0 (+2.88 units)

Week Results
12-5-0 (+10.84 units; ROI: 40.30%)

YTD Results
12-7-0 (+6.84 units; ROI: 22.14%)

NBA Player Props
5-5-0

I have not decided if I am going to go "tout" again this year. I will let you know in the upcoming weeks.

Saturday Plays

Golden State 2.5 +100 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Portland -1.5 -102 (1.8) [Matchbook]
Indiana Pacers +6½ -105 (1.4) [5Dimes]
Milwaukee 8.5 +100 (1.1) [Matchbook]
New Orleans 2.0 +109 (1.8) [Matchbook]
Over 194.0 (NJ/ATL) -106 [Matchbook]
Over 191.0 (UTA/CLE) -102 [Matchbook]

Friday, November 14, 2008

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Friday Plays

New Orleans -8.0 +105 (1.3) [Matchbook]
San Antonio 5.0 +114 (3) [Matchbook]
Charlotte 6.5 -102 (1.3) [Matchbook]
Los Angeles Lakers -9½ -105 for Game (2) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Sacramento Kings +7 -105 for Game (1.2) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Oklahoma City Thunder +8 -105 for Game (1.5) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

No Plays Today

I was waiting to see if Josh Howard was going to play and it looks like he is, so there will not be any plays.

I just opened a skybook account for free 1/2 points on Fridays for NBA, might be worth a look.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Wednesday Plays

JOSH BOONE POINTS+REBS -1½ vs. Jeff Foster -110 [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]

NBA
Sacramento Kings +7½ -105 for Game (2) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Indiana Pacers -1½ -105 for Game (2) [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Philadelphia 5.5 -101 (1.2) [Matchbook]

Added Play
UTA C.Boozer Points -1 -115* vs WAS C.Butler Points [5Dimes]
MIKE BIBBY PTS+ASSISTS -4½+105 vs R. Rondo [SportBet]

Tuesday Results

NBA Props
3-1-0

NBA
1-0-0 (+1.94 units)

Tuesday Plays

C BOOZER POINTS+REBOUNDS -3½ vs E. BRAND -140 [SportBet]
T YOUNG MOST POINTS -2½ vs R. BREWER -140 [SportBet]
Z ILGAUSKAS POINTS+REBOUNDS vs A. BOGUT -2½-110 [SportBet]
J.Richardson Points +6½ vs C. Anthony -115 for Game [5Dimes]

Added Play
Los Angeles (L) -5.5 -103 (2) [Matchbook]

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Saturday Results

NBA Player Props
2-1-0

New NBA Player Prop System v1

Starting up a new NBA Player Prop System. Tail at your own risk. I will only track W-L because I don't want to have to enter all the information into smartcapper to figure out the ROI and all that jazz.

Saturday Plays
D.Wade Points OVER Chris Paul -1 -115 for Game [5Dimes]
David West - Total Points and Rebounds OVER 29.5 -105 [Bodog]
Al Jefferson - Total Points and Rebounds OVER 32.5 -110 [Bodog]

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Wednesday Results

0-1-0 (-2.00 units)

Yeah, I'll wait until I have enough data to make educated plays.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Sunday Play

Since I love losing money on NFL Teasers...

6 point (+180) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Jax -7.5/-1.5
NYG -8.5/-2.5
PIT +2/+8

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Saturday Play

I wasn't going to start NBA plays until later in the season, but with a few injuries, I'm going to have 1 play early.

NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers +3 +106 (2) [Matchbook]

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

2008 MLB Record

World Series Future
1-0-0 (+1.31 units)

Overall
240-245-20 (+55.84 units; ROI: 7.15%)


Moneyline
206-208-16 (+54.36 units; ROI: 7.71%)

Totals
32-36-4 (-7.03 units; ROI: -10.04%)

Playoff Series
2-1-0 (+8.51 units; ROI: 139.51%)

I would say this was a very successful season, wouldn't you?

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Sports Interaction

I would like to welcome Sports Interaction to my affiliate program.

I highly recommend this book. There are lots of good lines to take advantage of.

Example
NBA Total Season Wins
San Antonio 53.5 -120 [SIA]

Elsewhere ([Bodog]/[TheGreek]) has this line at 48.5

So, I highly recommend opening up a SIA account and taking the under on the Spurs.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Yahoo "Expert" Picks

I found this rather funny. These "Experts" have been amazingly bad these playoffs.

ALDS,ALDS Picks
Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
Record 2-2
Come on, the Angels>Red Sox???

ALCS Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers
Boston Red Sox
Record 0-2

Tampa Bay Rays
TBD

This makes my Philly play look better and better...
The best part is these are more or less unanimous picks.

Hence, the reason you don't bet based on "expert" picks found on ESPN, Yahoo!, etc. Anyone remember the "Big Brown -300 lock of the century" that was on ESPN for over a week?

Monday, October 20, 2008

World Series Props

I can't take credit for these plays, but you should take them.

All for 1 unit (depending on your unit size as max is $100) from [Bodog]
WS to last 7 games +380
Phillies win Game 1 AND series lasts 7 games +750
Rays win Game 1 AND series lasts 7 games +850
Phillies win series 4-3 +800
Rays win series 4-3 +650

Credit: Results Disoriented

World Series Futures

Philadelphia +131 [Matchbook]

You can get +133 at Pinny.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Philly/Tampa World Series

Horray for Tampa Bay! I almost lost a bankroll killing play on them, but my boys Garza and Price came through.

I will have series plays (if any) tomorrow. Stay tuned. Going to ebay right now to buy a Tampa Bay hat.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

More Wall Street Bailout

Story

WTF. This is BS.

Bailout now totals $950+ Billion dollars created out of thin air. Wonderful.

Congratulations to the Bush administration and the federal reserve for destroying the dollar and welcoming in the Great Depression version 2.0 (coming soon).

Monday, October 13, 2008

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday Results
NFL
-1.00 units. I suck. I've lost something like 25 units on football this year.

Monday Results
MLB
1-0-0 (+3.11 units)

Saturday, October 11, 2008

NFL Teasers

Here we go again...

3 Team +180
Carolina +7.5 [Bodog]
Green Bay +7.5 [Bodog]
NY Giants -2 [Bodog]

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Record Update

MLB
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)
MIL/PHI Series

Overall Series Futures
1-1-0 (+7.20 units; ROI: 141.18%)

YTD
237-244-20 (+51.60 units; ROI: 6.65%)

NFL Teaser
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

MLB Divison Series Plays

LA Dodgers +200 for Series (4.1) [Matchbook]

A few borderline ones, hopefully the line will move favorably. The BOS/LAA already moved out of favorable territory :-(

Added Play
Milwaukee +169 for Series [Matchbook]

Tuesday Play

Last MLB play of the regular season.

Chicago (A) -139 (1.1) [Matchbook]

Record Update

NCAAF
Weekend Results
2-5-0 (-3.07 units)

YTD Results
13-18-1 (-5.54 units; ROI: -17.87%)

Whatever I'm doing isn't working. I'll be focusing more on dogs to try and turn this around.

MLB
Week Results
5-2-0 (+9.98 units; ROI: 67.89%)

YTD Results
235-243-20 (+43.61 units; ROI: 5.67%)

I will be coming out with division series plays after I get all of the pitching matchups put into my system.

Monday, September 29, 2008

No on the Government Bailout

Finally, someone who knows what they're talking about.



Another video, more informative:

Saturday, September 27, 2008

NFL Teasers

If you do not have a SportBet account. Do not do the 2 teamers. Only do the 3 teamers if you have -110 on the 2 teamers. Get a SportBet account as fast as possible.
Here is why:

6 Point 2 Teamers (+100)
Car -.5 [SportBet]
Buf -2 [SportBet]
SD -1.5 [SportBet]

6.5 Point 2 Teamers (-110)
Ari +7.5 [SportBet]
GB +7.5 [SportBet]

3 team round-robin all of the above plays at [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian] or whatever book you have ([JustBet]/[Bet Guardian] had the best lines on all of them when I looked)
6 Point 3 Teamers +180
6.5 Point 3 Teamers +160

Good luck. If you did it right, you should have risked 20 units. This will be a really good weekend, or really bad.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

NCAAF Plays

Georgia -6.5 -105 [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
LSU -24 -105 [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
Penn State -14.5 -105 [Matchbook]
South Florida -8.5 [Matchbook]
Ohio State -18.5 -111 [Matchbook]
Auburn -6.5 -110 [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]
UCLA +7 +100 [Matchbook]

Monday, September 22, 2008

Monday Results

3-0-0 (+9.12 units)

Despite the really good day, I have to say that I'm not really happy with the way things are going right now. I haven't been beating the closing lines like I was in the beginning of the season, which is necessarily a bad sign, but it's for sure not good.

Oh well, a good year in baseball thus far (minus the whole mid year beating I took) and GO TAMPA BAY! Futures cash in time, hopefully.

SportBet

Hi everyone,
I think I may have found a sportsbook gem for football betting.

Sportbet.com appears to offer 1/1 on 2 team 6 point NFL teasers.

This, obviously, is much better than the -110 I'm getting everywhere else.

Can anyone prove me wrong like they did with [JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]?

Sunday Results

1-0-0 (+1.44 units)

Monday Plays

Chicago Cubs +137 (3.2) [Matchbook]
Cleveland +240 (1.1) [Matchbook]
Oakland +131 (1.6) [Matchbook]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Record Update

MLB
Saturday Results
1-0-0 (+2.41 units)

Week Results
5-3-0 (+9.63 units; ROI: 69.28%)

YTD Results
230-241-20 (+33.63 units; ROI: 4.45%)


NCAAF
Saturday Results
1-7-0 (-6.03 units)
Sad. Killed a ton of closing lines, then got killed.

YTD Results
11-13-1 (-2.47 units; ROI: -10.29%)

Friday Plays

Atlanta +115 (2.1) [Matchbook]

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Thursday Plays

Tampa Bay -157 (1.1) [Matchbook]

I more or less waited all morning for this stupid order to get filled.

NCAAF Plays

Alabama -8.5 -103 [Matchbook]
Oregon -10.5 +100 [Matchbook]
East Carolina -7.0 -111 [Matchbook]
Arizona St 7.0 -104 [Matchbook]
Pittsburgh U -1.5 +105 [Matchbook]
Auburn 2.5 -102 [Matchbook]
Utah -7.5 -106 [Matchbook]
Mississippi -6.5 [Matchbook]

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Tuesday Results

1-0-0 (+2.34 units)

NFL Spreadsheet

Jazzy on 2+2 made a pretty nice/comprehensive spreadsheet for the NFL with historic lines, spreads, and line movements.

I haven't had a chance to look at it that much, but you may find it useful.

Jazzy’s Spreadsheet

Mirror to Jazzy's Spreadsheet

Monday Results

MLB
1-1-0 (+1.55 units)

And I only have a knee sprain. Sweet.

Tuesday Plays

Tampa Bay Rays +130 for Game (1.8) [5Dimes]

Monday, September 15, 2008

Sunday Results

NFL
+3.532 units
Got a little bit extra from [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook] because one of the plays was at -105 instead of -110.

MLB
1-1-0 (+2.10 units)

Monday Plays

Tampa Bay -113 (1.5) [Matchbook]
Washington +145 (2.1) [5Dimes]

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Site Updates

Hey all,
I hurt my knee pretty badly in basketball tonight, so I will probably be behind in making plays/posting results etc.

I will do my best to get plays and such up, mostly because I'm an addict, but your prayers for my knee/doctors/nurses etc. are much appreciated.

Sunday Plays

Atlanta Braves +160 for Game (2) [5Dimes]
Houston Astros +112 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]

Saturday, September 13, 2008

NFL Teasers

Games Teased

2 Game 6pt (-110) Risk .75 units
BAL +7.5 [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
NY Giants -2.5 [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

There are so many borderline plays right now. I will look at them again in the morning and decide what to do with them.


2 Game 6.5pt (-120) Risk .75 units
San Diego Chargers +7.5 [Bodog]

3 Game 6.5pt (+160) Risk 1 unit
Bal +8 [BetJM]
NY Giants -2 [BetJM]
San Diego +7.5 [BetJM]

Record Update

MLB
Saturday Results
0-2-0 (-3.80 units)

Week Results
3-7-0 (-4.23 units; ROI: -20.34%)

YTD Results
225-238-20 (+24.00 units; ROI: 3.24%)

NCAAF
Weekend Results
1-5-1 (-3.97 units)

YTD Results
10-6-1 (+3.56 units; ROI: 22.25%)

Saturday Plays

Baltimore GM2 +133 (1.7) [Matchbook]
Tampa Bay GM2 -113 (2.1) [BetJM]

Thursday, September 11, 2008

NCAAF Plays

Auburn -10.5 +106
East Carolina -12.5 -112
South Carolina 7.0 -109
South Florida -3.5 -103
Oregon -8.0 -103
Penn State -27.5 +103
Fresno State 2.0 +103

All from Matchbook.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Wednesday Results

1-1-0 (+2.37 units)

Wednesday Plays

Arizona -167 (2) [Matchbook]
Tampa Bay +208 (2.1) [Matchbook]

A lot of plays on Tampa Bay recently. The ARI play would be larger if I had hitting stats for all of their starters, but whatever.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Sunday and Monday Results

Sunday
MLB
0-1-0 (-3.10 units)

Monday
MLB
0-2-0 (-3.60 units)

NFL
If you teased all the games I recommended at the right unit/places/etc you should have:
-12.2 Units

Tuesday Plays

Atlanta -107 (1.8) [Matchbook]
Washington +205 (1.7) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Tampa Bay +145 (2.7) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Sunday Plays

NFL Teasers
Round Robin all these guys (3's and 4's). I am not doing 2 point teasers because of the lower edge and just putting more money on the 3s.

Wong Teaser FAQ

All from [Bodog], except the 4 teamer, which is from [BetJM]. Sorry it is kind of complicated and hard to figure out what is going on, but just do some magic with the teams I have down here. Make sure you tease ACROSS the 3 and the 7, for example, don't end on -3 or +7.

6 Point (+180)
PHI -2
SF +9
MIN +8

(+300)
PHI -2.5
SF +8.5
SEA +7.5
MIN +8

6.5 Point (+160)
SEA +7.5
PHI -1.5
SF +9.5
MIN +8.5

All are currently RISK 1 unit.

I am waiting on McGahee's status to determine if I want to add BAL on to the teaser list.

Added Play
BAL +8 or +8.5
I ran into liquidity problems and this one can be teased at [BetJM],[Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook],[Bodog],[JustBet]/[Bet Guardian]

I will try to make next weeks more clear. I am doing 3 team and 4 team teasers. I decided not to do the 5 teamers and 6 team.

MLB
Texas Rangers +125 for Game (3.1) [5Dimes]

Record Update

WNBA
Saturday Results
0-2-0 (-2.00 units)

Week Results
1-4-0 (-3.07 units; ROI: -51.17%)

YTD Results
13-18-1 (-8.41 units; ROI: -18.40%)

The WNBA system has been officially shut down.

MLB
Saturday Results
1-3-0 (-3.20 units)

Week Results
7-6-0 (+8.76 units; ROI: 35.18%)

YTD Results
222-231-20 (+28.23 units; ROI: 3.92%)

NCAAF
Week 2 Results
6-0-0 (+5.70 units)

YTD Results
9-1-0 (+7.53 units; ROI: 75.30%)

Saturday Plays

MLB
Cincinnati +120 for Game (1.4) [Sportsbook.com]/[SuperBook]
Detroit +140 for Game (2.0) [Matchbook]
Seattle Mariners +113 for Game (3.6) [5Dimes]
Under 11.5 (BOS/TEX) -108 [Matchbook]

WNBA
LA Sparks/Houston Comets under 146 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Detroit Shock/Washington Mystics under 152 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

Friday, September 5, 2008

Friday Results

2-0-0 (+7.47 units)

Boom.

Friday Plays

MLB
Seattle Mariners +150 for Game (4.3) [5Dimes]
Under 10.5 (BOS/TEX) +102 [Matchbook]

I have decided to use a combination of [SuperBook]/[Sportsbook.com],[BetJM],[Bet Guardian]/[JustBet],[Bodog] as the books I will be doing NFL teasers on. If you plan on tailing, you will want to get these set up and funded asap. Let me know if I can help.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

NCAAF Plays

Oklahoma -21.0 -105 [Matchbook]
Kansas -20.0 -110 [Matchbook]
Wisconsin -20.5 -105 [Matchbook]
Florida -21.0 -112 [Matchbook]
Vanderbilt +10.0 -113 [Matchbook]
Texas Tech -10.5 +102 [Matchbook]
E. Carolina +7.5 -102 [Matchbook]

No Plays Today

Hopefully some tomorrow.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Tuesday Results

WNBA
0-1-0 (-1.50 units)

MLB
2-1-0 (+0.94 units)

Tennis
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

I didn't get a chance to look at the matchups today, so I will be back tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Tuesday Plays

Baltimore +244 (1.4) [Matchbook]
Cleveland +109 (1.2) [Matchbook]

WNBA
Indiana Fever/Washington Mystics under 141 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]

Added Plays
Under 12.0 (SEA/TEX) +103 [Matchbook]

Added Play
Tennis
F Gonzalez +200 [Matchbook]
Andy Roddick is not that good. However, the US Open is his best surface, but seriously, he's been playing tennis for the last what 22 yrs and still has no backhand?
Tennis wagers will not be tracked.

Monday Results

WNBA
1-1-0 (+0.43 units)

MLB
2-2-0 (+3.55 units)

Monday, September 1, 2008

Monday Plays

MLB
Baltimore +192 (2.0) [Matchbook]
Washington +137 (2.7) [Matchbook]
Seattle +171 (1.9) [Matchbook]
Detroit -146 (1.4) [SuperBook]

WNBA
Minnesota Lynx +6½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Minnesota Lynx/LA Sparks under 157½ -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Record Update

MLB
Week Results
8-7-0 (+10.86 units; ROI: 39.93%)

August Results
39-34-3 (+26.29 units; ROI: 22.59%)

YTD Results
215-225-20 (+19.47 units; ROI: 2.80%)

WNBA
Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

Week Results
1-2-0 (-1.05 units; ROI: -35.00%)

YTD Results
12-14-1 (-5.34 units; ROI: -13.45%)

NCAAF
Saturday Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units)

YTD Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units; ROI: 31.67%)

Football Sportsbook

After semi-extensive research, I have decided to do all of my NFL teasers at JustBet and BetGuardian. I opened an account at BetGuardian yesterday.

Here are the reasons:
Teaser Odds:

6 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 1/1
3 TEAMS 9/5
4 TEAMS 3/1
5 TEAMS 9/2
6 TEAMS 7/1

6.5 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 10/11
3 TEAMS 8/5
4 TEAMS 5/2
5 TEAMS 4/1
6 TEAMS 6/1

Exception: When playing a two team teaser (with one or more pro teams) only use the following:
2 TEAMS 6 POINTS 11/10
2 TEAMS 6.5 POINTS 12/10

Now I'm not sure if I understand the "Exception", but it may provide even better odds for us.

Pretty much every other sportsbook ([5Dimes],[BetJM],[SuperBook],[Bodog]) offer 10/11 on the 6 point 2 teamers. THIS IS HUGE.

It equates to getting +100 on all of your bets versus -110. Or, if I'm reading the exception right, we will get +110 versus -110 on 6 point 2 team teasers. That is unheard of.

EDIT: thanks to stevek, it looks like we have to get odds of 10/11 on 2 teams with the NFL. Why the "exception" shows this as 11/10 instead of 10/11, I have no idea. I will look more into this during the season and see if it is worthwhile to deposit here. It may be just for the ability to lineshop.

I still plan on doing teasers for the 2008 NFL season despite the worse odds. They should still be profitable.

The only issue I see with JustBet and BetGuardian is no different than most books. It is hard to get money on. However, they reimburse all Western Union/Moneygram/Wire transfer/etc fees.

I highly recommend these books to you. They are from the same family, so they offer identical lines, no reason to have both of them, but DO NOT start the NFL season without them.

Saturday Plays

Lets try this NCAAF thing out.

NCAAF
Oregon -13 +100 for Game [5Dimes]
USC -19½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Florida Atlantic +24 -110 for Game [Bodog]

WNBA
Atlanta Dream/Indiana Fever under 148½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]

No MLB Plays today.

I will be on an airplane tomorrow, so no plays on Sunday. I'll be back on Monday.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Shameless Ad Post

I hope you guys are all enjoying the picks thus far. I have been really hot and I hope it continues.

Below are the sportsbooks that I have affiliate programs with and make all my plays with (except matchbook because they do not offer an affiliate program).

To help support the costs of running and maintaining the website as well as the development time into my different systems, please consider signing up at one of the following books if you do not have an account there. For the most part, I get a kickback bonus on your deposit (ie you deposit 500, I get 50 bucks).


Official Pure Sabermetrics Sportsbook Recommended List
5Dimes, BetJM, SuperBook/sportsbook.com, Bodog


I will list the special bonuses you can get at these places.I do not have accounts at any of the other books that I have affiliate programs with, so I cannot personally recommend them. I may be opening up new accounts in the near future and I am also working on getting more affiliate programs.If possible, go through the banner ads on my SportsBooks page to ensure proper tracking, but these text links should also work.

If I get enough sign ups, I hope to not "go tout" for the NBA season. Or we could make a deal, you sign up through a link of mine and be an active member at that book, if I go tout, you will have free access to the picks.


Now introducing, Bodog Sportsbook as an affiliate.
  • 10% Sign up bonus
    110% Poker sign up bonus
    100% Poker reload bonus
    10-15% Football reload bonus




  • I will be using Bodog a lot for football teasers and all sorts of props. A bodog account is a must for poker, football, and props.


    5Dimes
  • 50% bonus on new accounts (only certain funding methods)
    Reduced Juice (-105 pricing)



  • 5Dimes is a must for any sports better. I use it a ton for baseball and basketball. It does not offer that great props or football teasers.


    BetJM
  • 20% cash bonus for all new accounts on the first $1000 and 10% on the remaining deposit (Max. bonus of $500)
    10% reload bonus

  • I use BetJM for football teasers and MLB. They will reimburse for all deposit fees. Something that a lot of books are not doing anymore...


    SuperBook and Sportsbook.com
  • 10% sign up bonus
    100% first deposit poker bonus with code FIRST100




  • Note: the sportsbook.com family is a very lowly regarded book. I have never had any problems with them and I think it is detrimental not to have an account there because of their slow moving lines. They have the easiest credit card deposits of all the sportsbooks and I would recommend you keep a lower balance there just in case something weird happens.

    Thursday Plays

    WNBA
    San Antonio Silver Stars/Phoenix Mercury under 173½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
    Chicago Sky/NY Liberty over 145 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

    MLB
    WAS Nationals +155 (3.4) [Bodog]
    PHI Phillies +129 (1.5) [Matchbook]

    Wednesday, August 27, 2008

    Wednesday Results

    2-1-0 (+1.73 units)

    Also picked up a WIN on the MIL/STL season series from this thread

    Wednesday Plays

    Cincinnati +244 (1.5) [Matchbook]
    Washington +163 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    New York (N) -153 (1.7) [Matchbook]

    Monday, August 25, 2008

    Sunday, August 24, 2008

    Sunday Results

    2-3-0 (-0.59 units)

    I hope you all missed the ATL play because I made the play something like 5 min before gametime. If you did, you probably had an up day. Niiiceee...

    Sunday Plays

    Atlanta +193 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Cincinnati +178 (1.6) [SuperBook]
    Over 7.5 (WAS/CHC) +120 [Matchbook]

    Added Plays
    Cleveland +135 (2) [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (CLE/TEX) +101 [Matchbook]

    Saturday, August 23, 2008

    Record Update

    Saturday Results
    4-1-0 (+5.47 units)
    CIN blew a late lead or would have went 5-0.

    Week Results
    13-12-0 (+17.64 units; ROI: 43.77%)
    Extremely hot?

    YTD Results
    207-218-20 (+8.61 units; ROI: 1.29%)
    First time in positive territory since April, I believe.

    Investing Results
    Week Results
    0.00%

    YTD Results
    -4.69%

    Will try and add some more stock plays later this week...no guarantees.

    Saturday Plays

    Atlanta +148 (2.2) [Matchbook]
    Cincinnati +151 (2) [Matchbook]
    Over 8.5 (LAD/PHI) +109 [Matchbook]
    Philadelphia -163 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Tampa Bay +130 (1.6) [Matchbook]

    Friday, August 22, 2008

    Friday Results

    3-2-0 (+11.18 units)

    That will help.

    Friday Plays

    Cincinnati +115 (2.3) [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (CLE/TEX) +104 [Matchbook]
    Cleveland +117 (3.4) [Matchbook]
    Washington +258 (3.2) [Matchbook]
    Los Angeles Dodgers +113 (2.7) [SuperBook]

    Thursday, August 21, 2008

    Sun-Wed Results

    Sunday
    1-2-0 (-1.14 units)

    Monday
    1-2-0 (-1.09 units)

    Tuesday
    2-2-0 (+1.40 units)

    Wednesday
    2-3-0 (+1.82 units)

    Wednesday, August 20, 2008

    Wednesday Plays

    Cincinnati +224 (1.8) [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (COL/LAD) +101 [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (DET/TEX) +109 [Matchbook]
    Detroit +117 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    Over 9.0 (WAS/PHI) +103 [Matchbook]

    Tuesday, August 19, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    Over 7.0 (CIN/CHC) -118 [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (COL/LAD) +101 [Matchbook]
    Houston +224 (1.2) [Matchbook]
    Washington +212 (1.3) [Matchbook]

    Sunday, August 17, 2008

    Monday Plays

    Under 11.5 (DET/TEX) +102 [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (HOU/MIL) +101 [Matchbook]
    Seattle +198 (1.1) [Matchbook]

    Sunday Plays

    Tampa Bay Rays -148 for Game (2.6) [5Dimes]
    Milwaukee Brewers +150 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
    Washington Nationals +147 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]

    Saturday, August 16, 2008

    Record Update

    MLB
    Saturday Results
    2-5-0 (-5.52 units)

    Week Results
    16-11-3 (+4.21 units; ROI: 10.40%)

    YTD Results
    195-205-20 (-1.83 units; ROI: -0.29%)

    Investing
    Week: +0.05%
    YTD: -4.69%

    Saturday Plays

    Cleveland Indians +157 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
    Cincinnati Reds +106 for Game (2.3) [BetJM]
    Washington -139 [Matchbook]
    Tampa Bay -110 (1.1) [Matchbook]
    Seattle Mariners +188 for Game (2.5) [5Dimes]

    Added Play
    Under 10.5 (BAL/DET) +106 [Matchbook]
    Arizona +101 (2.1) [Matchbook]

    Friday, August 15, 2008

    Friday Results

    4-2-0 (+1.86 units)

    It has been a little disconcerting that I am not doing well vs. the closing lines. I will not be making plays in the afternoon as often. I am going to focus my efforts in the morning and make plays then. This may give me the ability take advantage of lineshopping, or pretty much just making every play at matchbook.

    Thursday Results

    3-1-0 (+3.18 units)

    Thursday, August 14, 2008

    Home Field Advantage

    A question came up on 2+2 on how to equate home field advantage.
    For the MLB, about 54% of the time, the home team wins, which obviously equates to a 4% home field advantage.
    However, what is the best way to incorporate that into your handicapping?
    One way is to use a static 4%, the other is to use an approximation in cents.

    Example:
    Toronto vs Los Angeles
    both have a 50% chance of winning
    true line would be +100 at a neutral field
    true line would be +116 away or -116 home (with 4% HFA or 16 cent HFA)

    now lets say los angeles has a 75% chance of winning
    true line would be -300 at neutral field
    true line would be -376 at home (with 4% HFA)
    true line would be -316 at home (with 16 cent HFA)

    using a static 4% HFA could result in overvaluing of home favorites.

    There's my attempt at making this site more informative than just picks.

    Friday Plays

    San Francisco Giants +130 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
    Tampa Bay Rays -108 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]

    Added Plays
    Washington +108 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (MIL/LAD) +115 [Matchbook]
    Under 11.0 (TB/TEX) -104 [Matchbook]
    Over 8.5 (COL/WAS) -104 [Matchbook]

    Tuesday and Wednesday Results

    Tuesday
    0-1-1 (-2.60 units)

    Wednesday
    3-1-1 (+1.25 units)

    Wednesday, August 13, 2008

    Thursday Plays

    Arizona Diamondbacks -139 for Game (2.3) [BetJM]
    Cincinnati Reds +109 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    New York Mets/Washington Nationals over 8½ +100 for Game [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -120 for Game [BetJM]

    Tuesday, August 12, 2008

    Wednesday Plays

    Atlanta Braves -120 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Minnesota Twins -113 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
    Boston Red Sox -225 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    Oakland Athletics -133 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]

    Monday Results

    3-2-1 (-1.16 units)

    Monday, August 11, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    Philadelphia Phillies -122 for Game (2.6) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 7 -120 for Game [BetJM]

    Sunday, August 10, 2008

    Monday Plays

    Milwaukee Brewers -200 for Game (1.3) [SuperBook]
    Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers over 8 -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Florida Marlins -119 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
    San Francisco Giants +120 for Game (2.7) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -115 for Game [BetJM]
    Los Angeles Dodgers -131 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

    I will be posting Sunday plays. I didn't get a chance yesterday to look at the lines early enough so i didn't make any plays for today.

    Friday, August 8, 2008

    Friday Results

    3-1-0 (+3.38 units)

    Saturday Plays

    Arizona Diamondbacks -155 for Game [BetJM]
    New York Yankees +149 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

    Silver Wheaton

    Silver Wheaton (SLW)
    Competitive Advantage
    Purchases silver at a set price (ex/ 3.20 per oz) and resells it at market price. Costs will stay the same regardless of silver price. Relatively unaffected by external factors (labor prices, etc).
    I believe that silver will rise in price.

    Main Competitors
    Pan American Silver (PAAS)
    COEUR D ALENE CP (CDE)

    Weaknesses
    Completely dependent on the volatile price of silver

    Financials (From Yahoo!)
    Market Cap: 2.35B
    P/E: 27.49
    PEG: 1.86
    EPS: 0.38
    Cash: 36.36M
    Debt: 492.87M
    FCF: 130.49M
    Div (Yield): None

    Disclosure: I own shares of Silver Wheaton

    Thursday, August 7, 2008

    Friday Plays

    I spent some of this afternoon updating my lineups. Here we go again.

    Florida Marlins +124 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
    Atlanta Braves +113 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
    Baltimore Orioles -163 for Game (2.2) [BetJM]
    Oakland Athletics +138 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]

    Monday, August 4, 2008

    Powerline Adapters

    I just finished my move and set up internet. It will take me a long time to update my MLB starting lineups, so those plays will come at a later date. I plan to stay up with the WNBA, however.

    One of my roommates is on the first floor, I am on the 3rd floor and have my cable modem/router and all that stuff in my room. I saw these things at Best Buy once, so I picked up a few of these magical networking devices. I have no idea how they work, but they do wonders. They send the internet through the power lines in you home and you can pick it up anywhere else through the socket with another adapter. It makes no sense to me and it is super fast. I highly recommend these to anyone that has a room or area that is not serviceable by wireless. You could even set this up and plug in another wireless router from it to create a new wireless network.

    The only drawback I have seen is that they only go through some surge protectors. I have been experimenting with them for a little while and some of the surge protectors I have gave me problems. Others work just fine or anytime it is plugged directly into the wall it has worked flawlessly.

    Wednesday, July 30, 2008

    Moving

    I am in the process of moving apartments, so I'm not sure when I'll have internet and all that jazz. I'll post results and plays when I get a connection.

    Tuesday, July 29, 2008

    Wednesday Plays

    Colorado Rockies -130 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
    Baltimore Orioles +225 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
    Chicago White Sox -107 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]

    Monday, July 28, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    Amazingly there were no plays today (Monday) in MLB.

    Plays for Tuesday
    MLB
    Colorado Rockies -119 for Game (2.7) [BetJM]
    Baltimore Orioles +152 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]
    Seattle Mariners +128 for Game (3.2) [BetJM]

    Saturday, July 26, 2008

    Record Update

    WNBA
    Week Results
    2-2-0 (+1.77 units; ROI: 22.69%)

    YTD Results
    11-12-1 (-4.29 units; ROI: -11.69%)

    MLB
    Saturday Results
    1-1-0 (-0.21 units)

    Week Results
    7-2-0 (+6.20 units; ROI: 51.24%)

    YTD Results
    173-188-17 (-5.85 units; ROI: -1.03%)

    Investing
    YTD Results
    -7.36%

    My Life
    0-1-0 (-2.0 hours)

    Today I watched 10,000 B.C.on DVD. That was one of the worst movies I've seen in a long time.

    Saturday Plays

    MLB
    Milwaukee -164 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    Washington/Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 +101 [Matchbook]

    Friday Results

    WNBA
    1-1-0 (+1.15 units)

    MLB
    4-0-0 (+5.54 units)

    Friday, July 25, 2008

    Friday Plays

    WNBA
    Seattle Storm +4½ -105 for Game (1.9) [5Dimes]
    Minnesota Lynx +3 -105 for Game (3.2) [5Dimes]

    MLB
    Atlanta +119 (1.9) [Matchbook]
    Los Angeles (A) -123 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    Cleveland -193 (1.0) [Matchbook]
    New York (A) +131 (1.3) [Matchbook]

    Thursday, July 24, 2008

    Tuesday and Thursday Results

    Tuesday MLB
    1-1-0 (-0.79 units)

    Tuesday WNBA
    1-0-0 (+1.62 units)

    Thursday WNBA
    0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

    I'm also sucking pretty bad on the stock plays. The American Express pick was definitely at a bad time.

    Wednesday, July 23, 2008

    Monday, July 21, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    MLB
    Arizona Diamondbacks -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Minnesota Twins +126 for Game (1.7) [Matchbook]

    WNBA
    Seattle Storm +6½ -105 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]

    Monday Results

    MLB
    1-0-0 (+1.66 units)

    WTF American Express?

    Sunday, July 20, 2008

    Webzen

    Webzen (WZEN)
    Webzen is a developer of MMORPG games primarily for the PC. Their claim to fame is a Diablo II ripoff called MU, but this thing brings in cash from around the world. They have a promising pipeline of games with Huxley in beta testing right now. Since I included the best stock in my portfolio, Chesapeake Energy, I figured I would include the worst, Webzen.

    Competitive Advantage
    Pipeline of games, current/future deals with The9, growing MMORPG market
    Valuation
    Korean based company, lower wages for employees

    Main Competitors
    Shanda Interactive (SNDA)
    NETEASE.COM (NTES)
    Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS)

    Weaknesses
    Management - Nothing good has come out of management thus far. Missed game release dates, inability to capitalize on game hype
    Saturation/competition of the MMORPG market

    Financials (Yahoo!)
    The Key Statistics on Yahoo! are incorrect. Do not use them for analysis. I haven't calculated out everything recently, but I can tell you that they are not as bad as Yahoo! shows. Yahoo! did not take into account a 3/10 split that occurred a while back. I also don't know how often those stats are updated, if at all because it is an ADR.

    Monday Plays

    Milwaukee Brewers +104 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

    Saturday, July 19, 2008

    Record Update

    WNBA
    Saturday Results
    0-1-0 (-1.00 units)
    Sorry, this one was my bad. I didn't realize that the WNBA wasn't a sport and sometimes plays OUTSIDE.

    Week Results
    1-3-0 (-2.86 units; ROI: -45.40%)

    YTD Resuts
    9-10-1 (-6.06 units; ROI: -20.97%)

    MLB
    Saturday Results
    1-1-0 (+2.60 units)

    Week Results
    2-6-0 (-5.57 units; ROI: -39.79%)
    No more betting Sundays...

    YTD Results
    166-186-17 (-12.05 units; ROI: -2.18%)

    Here is a fun fact:
    My record for the last 5 Sundays that I have made plays:
    1-4-0 (-6.07 units)
    1-6-0 (-5.77 units)
    2-4-0 (-3.07 units)
    1-5-0 (-8.13 units)
    1-5-0 (-9.30 units)

    For a total of -32.34 units

    Now if I had removed Sundays from my chosen days to make plays, I would be well into the green. This is probably one of those "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 5x for 32 units, shame on me." I can't seem to break the Sunday curse, so there will be no plays tomorrow. Maybe a stock one...

    Here's something random that made me laugh...
    This is straight from Gilbert Arenas' blog:
    Richard Jefferson going to Milwaukee …. HAHAHA! Oh man, now that is funny. When I heard that, I started laughing. Oh man, did I start laughing. You know why? Because every player hates Milwaukee. Nobody wants to live in Milwaukee. I’m sorry, Milwaukee, to come down hard on you, but no one in the NBA wants to play in Milwaukee. From him going from New Jersey, actually from New York (because he lives in New York), from New York to Milwaukee is like going … let’s just say it’s not going to sit well with you. That was a funny one when I heard that one. I know Yi is happy though.

    Saturday Plays

    MLB
    Seattle Mariners -101 for Game (1.2) [Matchbook]
    Washington Nationals +200 for Game (1.9) [SuperBook]

    WNBA
    Indiana Fever/NY Liberty over 141 -102 for Game [5Dimes]

    American Express

    American Express (AXP)
    American Express provides credit card services and other travel related services.

    Competitive Advantage
    More affluent customer base than competitors (hopefully less defaults/bankruptcy claims)
    Valuation

    Main Competitors
    Discover Financial Services (DFS)
    Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
    Visa (V)
    Citigroup Inc (C)

    Weaknesses
    Dependent on the weak American economy. Has a good amount of exposure to defaulting loans.

    Financials (From Yahoo!)
    Market Cap: 48.87B
    P/E: 12.66
    PEG: 1.13
    EPS: 3.33
    Cash: 33.64B
    Debt: 74.53B
    FCF: -568.25M
    Div (Yield): 0.72 (1.70%)

    Disclosure: I do not own shares in American Express.

    Friday, July 18, 2008

    Chesapeake Energy

    For each stock I will do a quick writeup from my research. Hopefully this will allow you to gain some insight into what I find attractive about this company.

    Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
    This is by far the single best performing stock in my personal portfolio. In a nutshell, Chesapeake Energy is involved in the exploration and acquisition of natural gas in the United States.

    Competitive Advantage
    Management - Insider buying (Primarily Aubrey McClendon, other directors selling). As of July 31, 2008 he singlehandedly owns 33,452,911 shares.
    One of the top "producers" of natural gas
    Pays a dividend

    Main Competitors
    I'm not a real expert here on Chesapeake's competitors, but these are what I found on Yahoo!
    Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
    BP plc (BP)
    ConocoPhillips (COP)

    Weaknesses
    Volatile natural gas prices
    Debt load (12B)

    Financials (From Yahoo!)
    Market Cap: 29.36B
    P/E: 29.88
    PEG: 1.00
    Price/Book: 2.68
    EPS: 1.82
    Cash: 1.00M
    Debt: 12.25B
    FCF: 5.45B
    Div (Yield): 0.30 (0.50%)

    Disclosure: I own shares in Chesapeake Energy.

    Friday Results

    Good day...NOT

    MLB
    0-1-0 (-2.10 units)

    WNBA
    1-2-0 (-1.86 units)

    Starting up investing portfolio this weekend, stay tuned.

    Friday Plays

    WNBA
    Seattle Storm +4 -110 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
    Sacramento Monarchs -9 -105 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
    Connecticut Sun/Chicago Sky over 146½ +100 for Game (2) [5Dimes]

    MLB
    San Diego Padres +121 for Game (2.1) [5Dimes]

    Wednesday, July 16, 2008

    NFL Futures

    These lines are pretty much all worse than opening, but it is the first chance I had to look at them. I've never done this before, so beware...

    All from bodog:

    2008 Regular Season Wins - St. Louis Rams
    Under 6½ (EVEN) (2)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Pittsburgh Steelers
    Under 9 (-115) (1.5)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Oakland Raiders
    Under 6 (-115) (3)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Green Bay Packers
    Over 8 (-140) (2)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Detroit Lions
    Under 6½ (-105) (3)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Dallas Cowboys
    Under 10½ (EVEN) (2) (2.5)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Cleveland Browns
    Under 8 (-105) (2)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Baltimore Ravens
    Over 6 (-125) (2)

    2008 Regular Season Wins - Atlanta Falcons
    Under 4½ (+110) (2)

    Added Plays
    Seattle wins NFC West -140 (3) [5Dimes]
    Baltimore wins AFC North +750 (2) [5Dimes]

    Monday, July 14, 2008

    Investing Section is Now Open

    Announcing the new investing section of Pure Sabermetrics.

    I will start building a portfolio of stock picks to see how I can do vs. the current bear market

    Rules for this portfolio:
    A maximum value of $5,000 can be purchased of a single stock.
    Each recommendation will start with a $1,000 investment in the stock. It can be recommended up to 5 times to reach $5,000.
    Minimum holding time for a stock is 1 month.
    No maximum holding time for a stock.
    No technical analysis or any of that junk will be used to time purchases/sales of stock.

    I will start off the portfolio in the next few days so I will have time to type up some quick analysis for each of the recommendations.

    You will find I am a pretty big fan of commodities. I highly recommend Jim Rogers' book, Hot Commodities

    Sunday, July 13, 2008

    Saturday, July 12, 2008

    Saturday Results and Other Goodies

    WNBA
    2-0-0 (+1.99 units)

    Only 1 play this week because I was gone, so I won't do the full record update.

    Almost anytime anybody would make a comment on a post, it would hold the post for moderation. That was pretty annoying for both me and you. I believe now it should immediately post unless it detects potential spam.

    Also, many of you are utilizing the Post Notification plugin I installed. If you are not, I think you should look into it. I put a lot of work into it and I would love it if it wasn't in vain. You can select which posts you would like to be notified of, for example only "Picks" or all posts and it will send you an email within 2 min of a post I make so you don't miss any plays, which is helpful especially if I make late plays. Also, you can discontinue use of the post notification at any time if you find it is not for you.

    I know it is really early, but I am working on a Fantasy Basketball page for this website to help you all dominate your fantasy leagues. Also, I am working on an Investment (stocks) page that should launch this next week. Anything to make a buck I guess... I hope you will find these additions useful.

    Sunday Plays

    MLB
    Houston Astros/Washington Nationals over 8½ -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Washington Nationals -101 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
    Tampa Bay Rays -149 for Game (3.4) [BetJM]
    Oakland Athletics -129 for Game (1.5) [BetJM]
    Toronto Blue Jays +110 for Game (1.3) [SuperBook]

    Saturday Plays

    WNBA
    Seattle Storm -3½ -110 for Game (1.0) [5Dimes]
    Minnesota Lynx -3½ -102 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]

    Thursday, July 3, 2008

    Record Update

    MLB
    Thursday Results
    6-0-0 (+8.43 units)

    Week Results
    10-3-0 (+10.06 units; ROI: 50.30%)

    YTD Results
    164-180-17 (-6.48 units; ROI: -1.20%)

    WNBA
    Thursday Results
    1-1-0 (-0.05 units)

    Week Results
    2-2-0 (-1.50 units; ROI: -26.79%)

    YTD Results
    6-7-1 (-5.19 units; ROI: -25.32%)

    I will be without internet access for the next 8 or 9 days. See you then.

    Wednesday, July 2, 2008

    Thursday Plays

    MLB
    Los Angeles Dodgers -121 for Game (2) [BetJM]
    San Francisco Giants -127 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies -111 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
    Detroit Tigers -130 for Game (1) [5Dimes]
    Oakland Athletics +111 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
    NY Mets +100 for Game (2.3) [SuperBook]

    Added Plays
    WNBA
    NY Liberty/Seattle Storm over 144 -105 for Game [5Dimes]
    Sacramento Monarchs/San Antonio Silver Stars over 144 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

    Tuesday, July 1, 2008

    Tuesday Results

    WNBA
    1-1-0 (-1.45 units)
    Freaking 16 point 3rd quarter? What a joke...

    MLB
    1-2-0 (-0.38 units)

    Tuesday Plays

    WNBA
    Chicago Sky/Minnesota Lynx over 150 -110 for Game (2.5) [BetJM]
    Phoenix Mercury -6½ -105 for Game (1.1) [5Dimes]

    MLB
    Seattle Mariners +119 for Game (1.7) [5Dimes]
    Cleveland +122 (1.4) [Matchbook]

    Added Play
    MLB
    Over 7.5 (CHC/SF) +105 [Matchbook]

    Monday, June 30, 2008