Saturday, August 30, 2008

Record Update

Week Results
8-7-0 (+10.86 units; ROI: 39.93%)

August Results
39-34-3 (+26.29 units; ROI: 22.59%)

YTD Results
215-225-20 (+19.47 units; ROI: 2.80%)

Saturday Results
0-1-0 (-1.00 units)

Week Results
1-2-0 (-1.05 units; ROI: -35.00%)

YTD Results
12-14-1 (-5.34 units; ROI: -13.45%)

Saturday Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units)

YTD Results
2-1-0 (+0.95 units; ROI: 31.67%)

Football Sportsbook

After semi-extensive research, I have decided to do all of my NFL teasers at JustBet and BetGuardian. I opened an account at BetGuardian yesterday.

Here are the reasons:
Teaser Odds:

6 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 1/1
3 TEAMS 9/5
4 TEAMS 3/1
5 TEAMS 9/2
6 TEAMS 7/1

6.5 POINT Odds
2 TEAMS 10/11
3 TEAMS 8/5
4 TEAMS 5/2
5 TEAMS 4/1
6 TEAMS 6/1

Exception: When playing a two team teaser (with one or more pro teams) only use the following:
2 TEAMS 6 POINTS 11/10
2 TEAMS 6.5 POINTS 12/10

Now I'm not sure if I understand the "Exception", but it may provide even better odds for us.

Pretty much every other sportsbook ([5Dimes],[BetJM],[SuperBook],[Bodog]) offer 10/11 on the 6 point 2 teamers. THIS IS HUGE.

It equates to getting +100 on all of your bets versus -110. Or, if I'm reading the exception right, we will get +110 versus -110 on 6 point 2 team teasers. That is unheard of.

EDIT: thanks to stevek, it looks like we have to get odds of 10/11 on 2 teams with the NFL. Why the "exception" shows this as 11/10 instead of 10/11, I have no idea. I will look more into this during the season and see if it is worthwhile to deposit here. It may be just for the ability to lineshop.

I still plan on doing teasers for the 2008 NFL season despite the worse odds. They should still be profitable.

The only issue I see with JustBet and BetGuardian is no different than most books. It is hard to get money on. However, they reimburse all Western Union/Moneygram/Wire transfer/etc fees.

I highly recommend these books to you. They are from the same family, so they offer identical lines, no reason to have both of them, but DO NOT start the NFL season without them.

Saturday Plays

Lets try this NCAAF thing out.

Oregon -13 +100 for Game [5Dimes]
USC -19½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
Florida Atlantic +24 -110 for Game [Bodog]

Atlanta Dream/Indiana Fever under 148½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]

No MLB Plays today.

I will be on an airplane tomorrow, so no plays on Sunday. I'll be back on Monday.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Shameless Ad Post

I hope you guys are all enjoying the picks thus far. I have been really hot and I hope it continues.

Below are the sportsbooks that I have affiliate programs with and make all my plays with (except matchbook because they do not offer an affiliate program).

To help support the costs of running and maintaining the website as well as the development time into my different systems, please consider signing up at one of the following books if you do not have an account there. For the most part, I get a kickback bonus on your deposit (ie you deposit 500, I get 50 bucks).

Official Pure Sabermetrics Sportsbook Recommended List
5Dimes, BetJM, SuperBook/, Bodog

I will list the special bonuses you can get at these places.I do not have accounts at any of the other books that I have affiliate programs with, so I cannot personally recommend them. I may be opening up new accounts in the near future and I am also working on getting more affiliate programs.If possible, go through the banner ads on my SportsBooks page to ensure proper tracking, but these text links should also work.

If I get enough sign ups, I hope to not "go tout" for the NBA season. Or we could make a deal, you sign up through a link of mine and be an active member at that book, if I go tout, you will have free access to the picks.

Now introducing, Bodog Sportsbook as an affiliate.
  • 10% Sign up bonus
    110% Poker sign up bonus
    100% Poker reload bonus
    10-15% Football reload bonus

  • I will be using Bodog a lot for football teasers and all sorts of props. A bodog account is a must for poker, football, and props.

  • 50% bonus on new accounts (only certain funding methods)
    Reduced Juice (-105 pricing)

  • 5Dimes is a must for any sports better. I use it a ton for baseball and basketball. It does not offer that great props or football teasers.

  • 20% cash bonus for all new accounts on the first $1000 and 10% on the remaining deposit (Max. bonus of $500)
    10% reload bonus

  • I use BetJM for football teasers and MLB. They will reimburse for all deposit fees. Something that a lot of books are not doing anymore...

    SuperBook and
  • 10% sign up bonus
    100% first deposit poker bonus with code FIRST100

  • Note: the family is a very lowly regarded book. I have never had any problems with them and I think it is detrimental not to have an account there because of their slow moving lines. They have the easiest credit card deposits of all the sportsbooks and I would recommend you keep a lower balance there just in case something weird happens.

    Thursday Plays

    San Antonio Silver Stars/Phoenix Mercury under 173½ -105 for Game [5Dimes]
    Chicago Sky/NY Liberty over 145 -105 for Game [5Dimes]

    WAS Nationals +155 (3.4) [Bodog]
    PHI Phillies +129 (1.5) [Matchbook]

    Wednesday, August 27, 2008

    Wednesday Results

    2-1-0 (+1.73 units)

    Also picked up a WIN on the MIL/STL season series from this thread

    Wednesday Plays

    Cincinnati +244 (1.5) [Matchbook]
    Washington +163 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    New York (N) -153 (1.7) [Matchbook]

    Monday, August 25, 2008

    Sunday, August 24, 2008

    Sunday Results

    2-3-0 (-0.59 units)

    I hope you all missed the ATL play because I made the play something like 5 min before gametime. If you did, you probably had an up day. Niiiceee...

    Sunday Plays

    Atlanta +193 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Cincinnati +178 (1.6) [SuperBook]
    Over 7.5 (WAS/CHC) +120 [Matchbook]

    Added Plays
    Cleveland +135 (2) [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (CLE/TEX) +101 [Matchbook]

    Saturday, August 23, 2008

    Record Update

    Saturday Results
    4-1-0 (+5.47 units)
    CIN blew a late lead or would have went 5-0.

    Week Results
    13-12-0 (+17.64 units; ROI: 43.77%)
    Extremely hot?

    YTD Results
    207-218-20 (+8.61 units; ROI: 1.29%)
    First time in positive territory since April, I believe.

    Investing Results
    Week Results

    YTD Results

    Will try and add some more stock plays later this guarantees.

    Saturday Plays

    Atlanta +148 (2.2) [Matchbook]
    Cincinnati +151 (2) [Matchbook]
    Over 8.5 (LAD/PHI) +109 [Matchbook]
    Philadelphia -163 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Tampa Bay +130 (1.6) [Matchbook]

    Friday, August 22, 2008

    Friday Results

    3-2-0 (+11.18 units)

    That will help.

    Friday Plays

    Cincinnati +115 (2.3) [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (CLE/TEX) +104 [Matchbook]
    Cleveland +117 (3.4) [Matchbook]
    Washington +258 (3.2) [Matchbook]
    Los Angeles Dodgers +113 (2.7) [SuperBook]

    Thursday, August 21, 2008

    Sun-Wed Results

    1-2-0 (-1.14 units)

    1-2-0 (-1.09 units)

    2-2-0 (+1.40 units)

    2-3-0 (+1.82 units)

    Wednesday, August 20, 2008

    Wednesday Plays

    Cincinnati +224 (1.8) [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (COL/LAD) +101 [Matchbook]
    Under 11.5 (DET/TEX) +109 [Matchbook]
    Detroit +117 (1.3) [Matchbook]
    Over 9.0 (WAS/PHI) +103 [Matchbook]

    Tuesday, August 19, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    Over 7.0 (CIN/CHC) -118 [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (COL/LAD) +101 [Matchbook]
    Houston +224 (1.2) [Matchbook]
    Washington +212 (1.3) [Matchbook]

    Sunday, August 17, 2008

    Monday Plays

    Under 11.5 (DET/TEX) +102 [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (HOU/MIL) +101 [Matchbook]
    Seattle +198 (1.1) [Matchbook]

    Sunday Plays

    Tampa Bay Rays -148 for Game (2.6) [5Dimes]
    Milwaukee Brewers +150 for Game (1.5) [5Dimes]
    Washington Nationals +147 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]

    Saturday, August 16, 2008

    Record Update

    Saturday Results
    2-5-0 (-5.52 units)

    Week Results
    16-11-3 (+4.21 units; ROI: 10.40%)

    YTD Results
    195-205-20 (-1.83 units; ROI: -0.29%)

    Week: +0.05%
    YTD: -4.69%

    Saturday Plays

    Cleveland Indians +157 for Game (1.8) [BetJM]
    Cincinnati Reds +106 for Game (2.3) [BetJM]
    Washington -139 [Matchbook]
    Tampa Bay -110 (1.1) [Matchbook]
    Seattle Mariners +188 for Game (2.5) [5Dimes]

    Added Play
    Under 10.5 (BAL/DET) +106 [Matchbook]
    Arizona +101 (2.1) [Matchbook]

    Friday, August 15, 2008

    Friday Results

    4-2-0 (+1.86 units)

    It has been a little disconcerting that I am not doing well vs. the closing lines. I will not be making plays in the afternoon as often. I am going to focus my efforts in the morning and make plays then. This may give me the ability take advantage of lineshopping, or pretty much just making every play at matchbook.

    Thursday Results

    3-1-0 (+3.18 units)

    Thursday, August 14, 2008

    Home Field Advantage

    A question came up on 2+2 on how to equate home field advantage.
    For the MLB, about 54% of the time, the home team wins, which obviously equates to a 4% home field advantage.
    However, what is the best way to incorporate that into your handicapping?
    One way is to use a static 4%, the other is to use an approximation in cents.

    Toronto vs Los Angeles
    both have a 50% chance of winning
    true line would be +100 at a neutral field
    true line would be +116 away or -116 home (with 4% HFA or 16 cent HFA)

    now lets say los angeles has a 75% chance of winning
    true line would be -300 at neutral field
    true line would be -376 at home (with 4% HFA)
    true line would be -316 at home (with 16 cent HFA)

    using a static 4% HFA could result in overvaluing of home favorites.

    There's my attempt at making this site more informative than just picks.

    Friday Plays

    San Francisco Giants +130 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
    Tampa Bay Rays -108 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]

    Added Plays
    Washington +108 (1.7) [Matchbook]
    Over 7.5 (MIL/LAD) +115 [Matchbook]
    Under 11.0 (TB/TEX) -104 [Matchbook]
    Over 8.5 (COL/WAS) -104 [Matchbook]

    Tuesday and Wednesday Results

    0-1-1 (-2.60 units)

    3-1-1 (+1.25 units)

    Wednesday, August 13, 2008

    Thursday Plays

    Arizona Diamondbacks -139 for Game (2.3) [BetJM]
    Cincinnati Reds +109 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    New York Mets/Washington Nationals over 8½ +100 for Game [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -120 for Game [BetJM]

    Tuesday, August 12, 2008

    Wednesday Plays

    Atlanta Braves -120 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Minnesota Twins -113 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]
    Boston Red Sox -225 for Game (1.4) [BetJM]
    Oakland Athletics -133 for Game (1.7) [BetJM]

    Monday Results

    3-2-1 (-1.16 units)

    Monday, August 11, 2008

    Tuesday Plays

    Philadelphia Phillies -122 for Game (2.6) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 7 -120 for Game [BetJM]

    Sunday, August 10, 2008

    Monday Plays

    Milwaukee Brewers -200 for Game (1.3) [SuperBook]
    Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers over 8 -110 for Game [BetJM]
    Florida Marlins -119 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]
    San Francisco Giants +120 for Game (2.7) [BetJM]
    Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers over 8 -115 for Game [BetJM]
    Los Angeles Dodgers -131 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

    I will be posting Sunday plays. I didn't get a chance yesterday to look at the lines early enough so i didn't make any plays for today.

    Friday, August 8, 2008

    Friday Results

    3-1-0 (+3.38 units)

    Saturday Plays

    Arizona Diamondbacks -155 for Game [BetJM]
    New York Yankees +149 for Game (1.6) [BetJM]

    Silver Wheaton

    Silver Wheaton (SLW)
    Competitive Advantage
    Purchases silver at a set price (ex/ 3.20 per oz) and resells it at market price. Costs will stay the same regardless of silver price. Relatively unaffected by external factors (labor prices, etc).
    I believe that silver will rise in price.

    Main Competitors
    Pan American Silver (PAAS)

    Completely dependent on the volatile price of silver

    Financials (From Yahoo!)
    Market Cap: 2.35B
    P/E: 27.49
    PEG: 1.86
    EPS: 0.38
    Cash: 36.36M
    Debt: 492.87M
    FCF: 130.49M
    Div (Yield): None

    Disclosure: I own shares of Silver Wheaton

    Thursday, August 7, 2008

    Friday Plays

    I spent some of this afternoon updating my lineups. Here we go again.

    Florida Marlins +124 for Game (1.1) [BetJM]
    Atlanta Braves +113 for Game (1.3) [BetJM]
    Baltimore Orioles -163 for Game (2.2) [BetJM]
    Oakland Athletics +138 for Game (1.2) [BetJM]

    Monday, August 4, 2008

    Powerline Adapters

    I just finished my move and set up internet. It will take me a long time to update my MLB starting lineups, so those plays will come at a later date. I plan to stay up with the WNBA, however.

    One of my roommates is on the first floor, I am on the 3rd floor and have my cable modem/router and all that stuff in my room. I saw these things at Best Buy once, so I picked up a few of these magical networking devices. I have no idea how they work, but they do wonders. They send the internet through the power lines in you home and you can pick it up anywhere else through the socket with another adapter. It makes no sense to me and it is super fast. I highly recommend these to anyone that has a room or area that is not serviceable by wireless. You could even set this up and plug in another wireless router from it to create a new wireless network.

    The only drawback I have seen is that they only go through some surge protectors. I have been experimenting with them for a little while and some of the surge protectors I have gave me problems. Others work just fine or anytime it is plugged directly into the wall it has worked flawlessly.